A New Approach

Shopper Foresight takes a different, but proven, approach.

Today’s marketing mix models are based on linear regression.  Linear regression treats every marketing component—advertising, merchandising and promotions—as independent and additive.

Shopper Foresight uses a different mathematical technique:  Vector Autoregression.  This approach was developed specifically to analyze complex, interdependent relationships and trends.  Vector Autoregression provides accuracy and simplicity by systematically organizing driver variables into a matrix across time.  The Federal Reserve has used this approach since the 1980’s to analyze and predict the performance of the U. S. economy. 

Linear Regression
(single equation)

  • Single point in time
  • Linear
  • Assumes impacts are additive
  • Assumes serial correlation

Vector Autoregression
(structured systems of equations)

  • Trended over time
  • Dynamic
  • Measures synergistic impacts
  • Captures interdependencies

Consistent shopper marketing evaluation, and adoption into the planning process, will return dramatic payback over time.


Source: Hoyt & Company study of leading companies in CPG shopper marketing


 
     
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